(Ansa)

A look at the composition of the new Parliament
The center-left coalition won a relative majority of seats at the national level, although by a razor-thin margin. However, due to the technicalities of the electoral system, this was not enough to secure the absolute majority of seats in both houses of the parliament.
In the Lower House, the center-left coalition ranked first with 29.5% of ballots. The gap with the center-right coalition (29.2%) was very thin, but sufficient to secure the majority premium. This implies that the center-left will automatically receive at least 340 seats (55% of the total). As a single party, the M5S won 25.6% of votes, which makes it the political party with the highest percentage of votes in the Lower House, although by a tiny margin (the Democratic party (PD) ranked second, with 25.4% of votes). The vote share of the center-coalition, led by Monti, was 10.6%.
In the Senate, the center-left and the center-right are neck to neck (31.6% vs. 30.7%), but the center-right won in all the most relevant regions, including Lombardy, Veneto, Campania and Sicily. This is a more solid performance compared to what opinion polls had suggested (and it is our key "risk scenario" we outlined in our note two weeks ago), and implies that the center-right is likely to get 116 seats vs. 113 seats for the center-left (158 seats are needed for the absolute majority). Monti's center-coalition won 9.1% of the votes (18 seats), implying that a potential coalition between the center-left and the center would fall well short of the required absolute majority of seats. The Five Star Movements won a surprisingly high 24% of the vote, thus securing 54 seats.

Where do we go from here?
This morning, the official seat allocation in parliament has been announced. Starting from that, the next key dates will be the elections of the president of the Lower House and the Upper House, which we expect to be concluded by about the middle of March. At that time, the process of forming a government will start and may take several weeks. President Napolitano (whose mandate expires on 15 May) will then start consultations with all political parties to form a new government. As the center-left coalition got the absolute majority in the Lower House, Bersani is likely to first be given the mandate to form a new government.
However, at least in theory, the President could also decide to opt for a transitional government, giving the mandate to a non-party person. We think this is unlikely, at least at this stage. In any case, after this, the person identified by the President will start his consultation process in order to decide whether to accept the mandate and set-up the list of ministries. The new cabinet ministers will take their oath of office and the new government has to win a confidence vote in both chambers of Parliament within ten days from its appointment.

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