A warning from the "tsar" of Russian banks: new sanctions could hit Italy hard. Italian businesses could face losses of 10 billion euros

The latest news coming from the Ukrainian front - separatists abandoning their stronghold in Slaviansk - could anticipate a turning point in the war. But it is really too soon to see the end of this crisis which is putting to test - well beyond the Ukrainian border - the relationship between Russia and the West. "Russia and Ukraine will find a way: time is the best medicine", says Vladimir Dmitriev with a smile, in Rome last Friday for the D-20: the second meeting of the institutions of G-20 countries involved in the financing of sustainable growth.

In some way, Mr Dmitriev is a front-line worker as well. Since 2004 he has been at the helm of Vnesheconombank (Veb), the State institution which in Soviet times used to manage the Ussr's foreign debt, until Vladimir Putin decided to turn it into a State development bank. Veb is one of the main conduits for the huge investments which in 2008/2009 saved a lot of Russian companies and banks, or which made the big Sochi Olympic project possible. And now the oligarchs struggling to repay their loans on time, or the entrepreneurs who - because of the Ukrainian crisis - cannot find proper access to financial markets, they all count on Veb's support. Next on the list of targets of possible new American sanctions, Veb itself is going through a hard time: yet its chairman has no doubts. Should sanctions be increased, Russia would be prepared. Whereas businesses in the European countries most closely connected to Russia, such as Italy, would be hit. Italy alone could post losses in the range of 10 billion euros.

How seriously is the Ukrainian crisis damaging the Russian economy?
Of course to some extent we are influenced by sanctions and restrictions. But not to the extent which may be relevant to the economies of Western Europe: Italy in particular, Germany and France. Mainly these three countries, deeply involved in cooperation with Russia. Sanctions imposed on Russia will be imposed on your businesses, and that's the main problem. There are estimates suggesting that the loss for Italy might be in the range of 10 billion euros, should sanctions be increased: losses regarding trade, investments, non repatriated profits from companies which won't be able to work without additional and technological assistance. And of course, as a result of an increase of sanctions, Russia will think about counteractions.

What kind of counteractions?
To talk about this is not part of my job, they are decided at government and presidential level, I won't comment on that. My wish is that we won't reach that borderline where we are forced to do something which is not desirable for our partners.

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