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A NEW WAY TO DEAL WITH THE RENMINBI
La rivalutazione della valuta cinese, effettuata lo scorso luglio, ha raggiunto solo in minima parte lo scopo di attenuare l'ancoraggio esclusivo al dollaro statunitense

Last July, China announced a 2.1 per cent appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and a move to a managed float «with reference to a basket of currencies». So far, these reforms have had little effect: the renminbi-dollar rate has appreciated only a further 0.5 per cent; there is little evidence of pegging to a basket rather than to the dollar alone; and China is not following through on its July pledge to give «market supply and demand» a greater role in exchange-rate determination. China's average monthly intervention in the foreign exchange market between August and December remained huge, almost equal to the first half of 2005. In short, China's exchange-rate system remains a heavily managed peg to the dollar and at a little-changed dollar rate.
Moreover, there is no indication of an end to the renminbi's substantial under-valuation. On the contrary; 2005 was the third consecutive year in which China's reserve accumulation amounted to an extraordinary 10 per cent of gross domestic product or more. China's global current account surplus nearly doubled last year to reach 7 per cent of its recently revised GDP, while the real trade-weighted renminbi still shows a cumulative depreciation since the dollar peak of February 2002. China's exchange-rate policies have created problems domestically and abroad. Exchange-rate inflexibility limits the independence of China's monetary policy and thus hampers macroeconomic stability. Renminbi undervaluation has contributed to growing trade surpluses and, in some years, to huge portfolio capital inflows. The country's central bank sterilised much of the resulting reserve accumulation but also resorted to administrative controls to limit bank credit creation. But when the central bank specifies lending ceilings and sectoral lending priorities, it slows development of a bank credit culture, setting back another top policy objective. ...
China's ability to reform its exchange-rate regime is constrained by its fragile banking system, which requires maintaining existing capital controls. Also, the degree of renminbi under-valuation is now so large and Beijing's commitment to an incremental approach so entrenched that eliminating the under-valuation in one hit no longer seems feasible.
Thus, we propose the following compromise. First, China should implement in the next few months a 10-15 per cent appreciation of the renminbi relative to the current value of the basket. This could be done either by a revaluation or by allowing market forces to push up the currency's value. Such a «down payment» would help to persuade external critics that China is serious about controlling its growing external imbalance. Second, China should widen substantially either the band around the central rate or the daily fluctuation limit. That would provide increased independence for monetary policy, allow scope for further renminbi appreciation and give China experience in managing increased flexibility. Third, to offset some of the contractionary effect of the renminbi appreciation, China should simultaneously implement fiscal expansion. Fourth, China should maintain most capital controls until its banks are further strengthened. ...

MORRIS GOLDSTEIN AND NICHOLAS LARDY
Tratto dal «Financial Times» del 20 gennaio

• Administrative controls: controlli di natura amministrativa
• Appreciation: rivalutazione, apprezzamento
• Band of fluctuation: banda di oscillazione
• Bank credit creation: creazione di credito da parte delle banche
• Bank credit culture: cultura del credito bancario
• Banking system: sistema bancario
• Basket of currencies: paniere di valute/valutario
• Capital controls: controlli sui capitali
• Contractionary: recessivo
• Cumulative depreciation: svalutazione cumulativa
• Central bank: banca centrale
• Central rate: tasso centrale, paritą di cambio
• Currency: moneta, valuta
• Current account surplus: eccedenza delle partite correnti/in conto corrente
• Down payment: acconto, deposito
• (Exchange) rate: tasso (di cambio)
• External imbalance: squilibrio con l'estero
• Foreign exchange market: mercato dei cambi
• Gross domestic product (GDP): Prodotto interno lordo
• Growing trade surplueses: incrementi delle eccedenze commerciali
• Incremental approach: approccio incrementale
• Inflexibility: rigiditą
• Lending ceilings: limiti massimi del credito
• Managed float: fluttuazione manovrata
• Market demand: domanda di mercato
• Market forces: forze di mercato
• Market supply: offerta di mercato
• Monetary policy: politica monetaria
• (To) peg: ancorare
• Portfolio capital inflows: afflussi di capitali di portafoglio
• Renminbi: unitą monetaria della Cina, divisa in fen (L'Inglese dell'economia, Zanichelli)
• Reserve accumulation: accumulazione di riserve valutarie
• Revaluation: rivalutazione
• Sectoral lending priorities: prioritą di settore nella concessione dei crediti
• Trade-weighted (currency): (peso di una valuta) «basato sul volume di commercio mondiale svolto dal Paese in cui essa circola» (Economics and Business, Zanichelli)
• Under-valuation: sottovalutazione