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MONETARY UNION IS NOT FOR THE POOR
Estonia e Lituania premono per entrare nell'area dell'euro, ma č probabile che la loro domanda sia respinta: mancano di vari requisiti, ma sono anche Paesi arretrati

There are few debates in the European Union as dishonest as the debate about enlargement of the eurozone. Three countries were scheduled to join the euro by 2007. «Regarding Estonia and Lithuania, as the figures stand, things look bad,» Karl-Heinz Grasser, the Austrian finance minister, told the European parliament last week. Only Slovenia is still on target for eurozone membership in 2007.
Mr Grasser was referring to Lithuania's and Estonia's inflation rates, which are a little higher than the eurozone average. That is true, but the differential merely reflects a one-off rise in energy prices, and the fact that the general price level is catching up with the rest of the EU. The latter is what economists call the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Strip those effects out, and you come to the conclusion that these inflation rates pose no economic problem at all, neither for them, nor for the rest of the eurozone. But as the rest of the eurozone does not want them to join for other reasons, the inflation criterion comes in handy. In other words, Mr Grasser and his colleagues got them on a technicality.
There exist some perfectly sound economic reasons to dissuade Lithuania and Estonia from entering the euro at this point - but not this one. The decision on whether EU countries are allowed to participate in the euro rest on nominal criteria, laid out in the Maastricht treaty of 1993. They were never appropriate then, much less so now. The five criteria relate to inflation, short-term interest rates, public sector deficits, net debts and exchange-rate stability. The reason why they were never an ideal set of membership criteria is because they exclude the so-called "real" economy - productivity, jobs and wages.
The drafters of the Maastricht treaty wanted their criteria to be as unambiguous as possible. But in the effort to meet nominal criteria, governments resorted to creative accounting tricks, and the EU ended up with what it set out to avoid in the first place: an arbitrary selection process.
Now that the euro is seven years old, we know that the real economy matters a great deal for membership selection. With hindsight, we know that it was probably a mistake to have admitted Portugal. There is also a question mark about Italy, an economy with a high degree of wage and price inflexibility that manages to generate inflation even during recessions. One of the main economic lessons from Emu is that one should not join a monetary union, unless the economy is sufficiently flexible.
The real reason neither Lithuania nor Estonia should join is because they are still too poor. That is a point that neither the European Commission nor the European Central Bank will make in their official reports. In their further economic development, these countries may still require exchange rate flexibility at some point. Meanwhile, the reason why Slovenia is probably ready to join the eurozone next year is precisely because it is much wealthier - wealthier than Portugal in fact.
Given the high rates of productivity growth in east Europe, real economic convergence between east and west will not take forever. That would not keep the Lithuanians and Estonians out of the euro indefinitely but would delay their membership for several years. But instead of talking about real convergence, the EU is presenting a fake argument about inflation. I would not be surprised if the two countries found a way to keep their inflation rates temporarily down through perfectly legal tricks. Our dishonesty will backfire eventually.

WOLFGANG MUNCHAU
Tratto dal «Financial Times» del 23 gennaio

• Arbitrary selection process: processo di selezione di natura arbitraria
• (to) Be on target: (fig.) essere sulla pista giusta; (anche) rispettare le scadenze prefissate (Ragazzini 2005, Zanichelli)
• Creative accounting tricks: artifici della contabilitą creativa
• Drafters: estensori
• Emu (European Monetary Union): Unione monetaria europea
• Energy prices: prezzi dell'energia
• Enlargement: allargamento
• European Central Bank: Banca centrale europea
• European Commission: Commissione europea
• Eurozone: zona dell'euro, eurozona
• Eurozone membership: condizione di membro dell'eurozona
• Exchange rate stability: stabilitą del tasso di cambio
• Figures: cifre
• Finance minister: ministro delle finanze
• General price level: livello generale dei prezzi
• Inflation criterion: criterio dell'inflazione
• Inflation rates: tassi d'inflazione
• Jobs: posti di lavoro
• Membership selection: selezione dei nuovi membri
• Net debts: debiti netti
• Nominal criteria: criteri nominali
• One-off: aumento straordinario
• Price inflexibility: rigiditą dei prezzi
• Public sector deficits: disavanzi del settore pubblico
• Rates of productivity growth: tassi di crescita della produttivitą
• Recessions: fasi di recessione
• Short-term interest rates: tassi d'interesse a breve termine
• Technicality: tecnicismo
• Wage inflexibility: rigiditą d(e)i salari
• Wages: salari