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RETURN OF CARRY TRADE INVESTORS HITS YEN
La valuta di Tokio è scesa ai minimi storici sull'euro a causa di attacchi speculativi - I residenti nel Sol Levante nelle ultime 4 settimane hanno acquisito una quota netta di 14,5 miliardi € in obbligazioni esteree - Il rendimento dei titoli di Stato decennali in Giappone è sceso dalla punta massima dell'1,99% di maggio all'1,63% dei giorni scorsi

The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level in 21 years in real terms last week as carry trade investors returned en masse, borrowing the low-yielding currency to finance investments with higher returns elsewhere.
«Carry is back with a vengeance,» said Thomas Stolper, global markets economist at Goldman Sachs.
Peter Rosenstreich, foreign exchange strategist at Saxo bank, said: «The yen is now a free funding instrument and fund managers are using it to finance their most speculative dreams.»
Selling low-yielding yen in favour of higher yielding currencies has driven the Japanese currency to record lows against the euro. The yen has fallen 6.6 per cent against the European currency since May.

It has fallen even further against higher yielding currencies that have been the main beneficiaries of the carry trade.
Over the same period the yen has tumbled 7 per cent against the Australian dollar 7.6 per cent against the sterling, helping to push it to a two-year high in tradeweighted terms, and 11.9 per cent against the New Zealand dollar. The revival of the carry trade has been driven by falling interest rate expectations in Japan since the optimism of July, when the Bank of Japan raised rates above zero for the first time in five years amid signs the economy was recovering.
Expectations that Tokyo would raise rates again this year have faded amid disappointing data, capped by signs that inflation is barely positive and economic growth is starting to slow. Neil Mellor currencies strategist at Bank of New York said: «The data from Japan has been pretty dire. It... is not strong enough to justify rate rises.»
As a result, 10-year Japanese government bond yields have fallen from a high of 1.99 per cent in May to 1.63 per cent.

At the same time, robust data have heightened rate expectations in New Zealand, Australia and the UK, while countries such as Turkey have raised rates sharply since May's emerging market sell-off.
Global appetite for risk has also returned, encouraging traders to chase the carry trade. Last month's decision by the US Federal Reserve to leave rates on hold has also fuelled the trade.
Japanese retail investors appear to be behind much of the short-yen carry trade. Official data indicate Japanese residents bought a net Y2,175bn (14.5bn) of foreign bonds in the past four weeks. Inflows into forex margin accounts have also risen, according to Reuters data.
But western momentum-driven hedge funds have also been active, with the volume of short-yen positions held on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rising to a record $11.4bn (€8.9bn) - prompting warnings that the yen could yet snap back sharply.

Steve Johnson
Tratto dal «Financial Times» del 4 settembre


  • Against: in confronto a, nei confronti di
  • To borrow: contrarre prestiti
  • Carry trade: si tende a non tradurlo; viste le sue modalità operative e il significato di rimanenza" in ambito commerciale e borsistico, perchè non renderlo con "settore delle operazioni speculative "a rimanenza"?
  • Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME): è una delle Borse merci e dei mercati dei futures (contratti a termine) Usa più importanti del mondo
  • Economic recovery: ripresa economica
  • Emerging market: mercato azionario di un Paese emergente
  • Foreign bonds: obbligazioni estere
  • Foreign exchange strategist: consulente/esperto strategico/in strategie per i/dei mercati valutari
  • Forex: mercato valutario
  • Funding instrument: strumento di finanziamento
  • Fund managers: gestori di fondi
  • Global markets economist: esperto di economia dei mercati globali
  • Hedge funds: fondi di copertura
  • Low-yielding currency: valuta a basso rendimento
  • Margin accounts: conti (acquisti) a margine/depositi di garanzia
  • Record lows: minimi storici
  • Retail investors: piccoli investitori
  • Returns: utili, rendimenti
  • Sell-off: (s)vendita massiccia
  • Short-yen: (agg. :) relativo allo yen a breve
  • (To) snap back: (rif. a economia eccetera) riprendersi all'improvviso
  • Trade-weighted terms: termini ponderati su base commerciale