• 123345Pierluigi Bersani
  • 117125Silvio Berlusconi
  • 54109Beppe Grillo
  • 1947Mario Monti
  • 10Vallee d'Aoste
  • 12M.Ass.Ita.Estero
  • 01USEI
  • 00Antonio Ingroia

Italy and the Political Cliff (Part III)

The Italian election is a crucial risk event. Even though the polls suggest that a centre-left majority in the Lower House is possible, the situation in the Senate is a lot more uncertain.A hung parliament might push the centre-left and the centre to form at least an informal alliance on certain themes. With former prime minister Mario Monti in the picture, this might give investors a sense of continuity. But one risk is that such a broad ...

Euro area Economics: Italian politics: Five Star Movement steps up its market-unfriendly rhetoric

In the past, Beppe Grillo has made many statements about the euro currency and about his willingness to renegotiate the Italian public debt which imposes on taxpayers what many see as an unbearable interest rate payment bill. These positions have earned him a reputation for being anti-euro and a market-unfriendly leader. The view that Italy might leave the euro and default in full, or in part, on its outstanding public debt "with the least ...

Italy's election argues for a European response

By Jeffrey Anderson (SENIOR DIRECTOR IIF)Inconclusive elections make further structural reforms difficult politicallyThis raises doubts about OMT eligibility, which had been widely assumedWeak popular backing for adjustment and reform underscores the need to givegrowth greater prioritySo does the high ratio of debt to GDP, which will ratchet up if GDP keeps decliningThe ECB could usefully signal that growth is important with a policy interest ...

A tale of two showmen

Italy is used to instability says Italian professor who also predicts fresh elections in six months

Italian professor Guglielmo Meardi believes there is no need for the Eurozone and financial markets to "panic" over Italy's election results.The elections have produced a stalemate with the possibility of a hung parliament, but Professor Meardi believes whatever Government is put in place should be able to hold things together until the German elections in September.Professor Meardi, of Warwick Business School, feels that Italy can then have new ...

Election results details

No simple Senate agreement, expect weeks of negotiationsThe centre left coalition led by Pierluigi Bersani secured a majority in the lower house, but needs a coalition partner in the Senate in order to govern. A coalition with Monti's list would be 20 seats short and a grand coalition with Monti and Berlusconi is de facto unviable as Berlusconi has ruled out cooperation with Monti. The remaining options are: a Bersani-Berlusconi (BB) ...

Italy: Political stalemate


by Loredana Federico, Economist UniCredit Research ...

Italian elections have triggered fresh uncertainty in the eurozone. What happens next?

The Italian elections have delivered fresh uncertainty and instability – both to Italian politics and the eurozone. No party or coalition holds a governing majority in the Senate, the upper house of the Italian parliament, and there are no obvious coalitions in the offing. Nevertheless, several leading Italian politicians have over the last 24 hours said that new elections should be avoided. The situation remains extremely fluid.

Italy goes to the polls

While all recent polls have continued to support a relatively reassuring central scenario for markets – a victory of the pro-European center-left, probably able to form a government with the support of Mario Monti's centrists – there are several alternative and sub-scenarios that cannot be dismissed. These imply that the Italian elections remain a significant risk

Italian elections could trigger fresh uncertainty in the eurozone

The Italian elections have turned into a referendum on fiscal discipline and structural reform. No less than five of the seven main political parties in the race – together polling at around 50% – have pledged to put an end to EU-mandated austerity. ...

Italians must reject populism and embrace reform

Italy's vital reform agenda hangs in the balance. Elections at the end of this month could split power between the Left, in the lower house, and Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition, in the Senate. Such an outcome would effectively kill the government's ability to push through the structural reforms that Italy urgently needs to revive growth. A divided parliament may even reverse the tentative progress already made under Prime Minister ...

Risk of ungovernability on the rise


(By Nomura) ...

How to Track Italy's Election Race (by Pimco)

By Nicola Mai and Myles Bradshaw ...