Storia dell'articolo
Chiudi

Questo articolo è stato pubblicato il 19 febbraio 2013 alle ore 13:46.

My24

The Italian elections have turned into a referendum on fiscal discipline and structural reform. No less than five of the seven main political parties in the race – together polling at around 50% – have pledged to put an end to EU-mandated austerity.

Two of these parties – Lega Nord and comedian Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement – are in favour of a referendum on Italy's euro membership. Together, they could potentially secure over 20% of the vote.

The final outcome of the elections has become increasingly uncertain throughout the campaign. Somewhat unbelievably, Silvio Berlusconi has been reinvigorated, thanks to a strong populist anti-austerity campaign. Two weeks before the elections, his centre-right alliance was trailing the centre-left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani by between 4% and 9%,
depending on the poll.

This means that, though unlikely, Berlusconi could still win. In 2006, Berlusconi managed to come back and almost win the elections against all odds – despite opinion polls putting him approximately between 3% and 6% behind.

Even if he does not win, Berlusconi could stop the centre-left from winning a majority in the Italian Senate – the upper chamber. This would force Bersani to seek allies to form a new government, with Mario Monti's pro-reform bloc the obvious candidate.

An outright victory for Bersani's centre-left coalition in both chambers would make the formation of the new cabinet smoother, but a self-sufficient centre-left government would be more limited in its reform efforts, not least because of the links to the country's unions – and is unlikely to push ahead with further changes to Italy's rigid labour market.

Support for Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement could be the real litmus test of these elections. Grillo has made clear that he will not join a coalition government with any of the old establishment parties, and has been calling for a referendum on the euro and the restructuring of Italy's huge public debt. The various scandals which have been surfacing in Italy over the past few weeks may well give the Five-Star Movement an extra boost. Grillo's vote share could be seen as the public protest vote against the current state of Italian politics.

Mario Monti has no chance of outright victory, but he could still end up being the kingmaker. We discuss four post-election scenarios which could materialise if the centre-left wins the elections, but fails to secure a majority in the Italian Senate.

(FULL TEXT)

Commenta la notizia