Basically these elections are a challenge between a traditional left and a divided right. If we look at it from this point of view, the situation is very similar to what we had in 1994, before Silvio Berlusconi appeared on the scene. Back then there was Achille Occhetto's Progressisti coalition which included the PDS (left-wing democratic party), the Rifondazione Comunista, the Rete, the PSI (socialist party) the Green party and the Alleanza Democratica.

In the first elections of the Second Republic it obtained 33.1% of the votes in the single-member districts of the Lower House. For the proportional part it had 34.3% of the votes. If Berlusconi had not stepped in, the left would have won and gone to power on its own for the first time in the history of the country. It would have been possible result thanks to the new majority system that would have transformed the 33.1% of the Progressisti votes into an absolute majority of the seats. It would have happened if the Italian right had remained divided. Instead Berlusconi erupted on the scene and incredibly managed to put the majority of the moderate parties together. He won the elections and the left had to postpone its date with history.
After 19 years we are back to where we started. The wheel has turned and today Berlusconi and the left are once again face to face, with Bersani in Occhetto's place. But what kind of left ? Today's left is certainly not like that of 1994. A lot has happened in the meantime. There has been Prodi's Ulivo and Veltroni's PD. A piece of the radical left is no longer in today's leftist coaoition. This is all true. Nevertheless, the coalition that Bersani is proposing to govern the country is not too different from the one in 1994. Its organizational and ideological core is still the same and it is formed by the political machine of the PDS. Its electoral base is also the same, more or less 34% of the votes. Of course, the voters are not the same. There are more moderate voters. The PD has more votes than the PDS. Yet, its geographical and social base is still the same.

Just like Occhetto's, Bersani's coalition is strong in the red areas of the country, among dependent workers and in the big cities. It is still weak in the North East. It still does not have an offer able to represent the interests of the productive groups in this part of the country. Even though its leader, Bersani, certainly shows more attention towards the demands of the industrial sector.
Not much has changed in almost twenty years. But today the left could win. Once again, as it could have happened in 1994, this can happen thanks to the electoral system. It is not the same as then, but in the Lower House there is a super-majoritarian system. With 34% of the votes Bersani and his ally Vendola could obtain 54% of the seats. If this occurs, Bersani would have done what Veltroni was not able to do in 2008 with 37.5% of the votes. The reason is the division of the right. With a united right, this left could not win.
The real difference with 1994 is Berlusconi's decline. Those within the PD who chose identity over change most likely will win their bet. Renzi can wait. Sometimes in politics it is possible to win without too many changes. It depends on the circumstances and on the rules. But we will only know for sure on Monday night. What we do know today is that, putting aside Renzi, the PD preferred to stick to the status quo. And so, just as in 1994, it gave up the idea of trying to create a new political and social block. Grillo has become the catalyst for radical change. Just like Berlusconi and Bossi did at the end of the First Republic. This time however the left could become the majority in the Lower House thanks to a generous electoral system. If so, there will be a left minority governing a country in which the majority continues to be culturally and politically conservative.

But at least there is a left coalition able to govern Italy today. This was not true in other moments of our history. This shows how far Italy has come. Strenuously and not yet completely. But it has. Today we have a left which is still quite traditional but firmly attached to Europe. Not very unlike the French left but less fortunate. We will see after the elections, if the PD should win, what it means to govern having won with a single ballot majority system instead of a double ballot.
The right is bedlam where quarrels and divisions have destroyed that unity that Berlusconi had managed to create and that then he himself contributed to destroy. Old parties have left Berlusconi's coalition while new parties have been created. But what really matters is that there is a consistent number of Berlusconi voters that have scattered here and there. Partially towards Monti. But especially towards Grillo. A consistent core is still with the Cavaliere but their number is more similar to that of 1994 than to that of 2008 when the Pdl by itself obtained 37.4 % of the votes. At this point, whether Berlusconi wins or not, Italy will still need a more united and a more modern right.
This is the situation Italians have to deal with as they make their voting choice that for many reasons will be historic. In 1994 the consequences only concerned us. Today this is no longer true. They also concern Europe and its future. Basically these elections are a challenge between a united left and a divided right. If we look at it from this point of view, the situation is very similar to what we had in 1994, before Silvio Berlusconi appeared on the scene. Back then there was Achille Occhetto's Progressisti coalition which included the PDS (left-wing democratic party), the Rifondazione Comunista, the Rete, the PSI (socialist party) the Green party and the Alleanza Democratica.

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