By Nicola Mai and Myles Bradshaw

The Italian election next month is one of the key political events in Europe this year. In order to build on the recent improvement in confidence, Italians need to elect a government with a stable parliamentary majority and a mandate for continuing last year's reform efforts. Understanding the political process is therefore essential. Current polls point to a benign outcome, with the possibility of a post-election alliance between the leading centre-left coalition and the Mario Monti coalition. But, it is important to continue tracking polls closely from here, not just at the national but also at the regional level.

The electoral system explained
The Italian parliament is made of two chambers: the Chamber of Deputies (630 seats) and the Senate (315 seats plus five unelected life senators). The two chambers have the same political powers and both need to pass bills before they have full legal force. A functional government therefore requires the governing coalition to command a majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and Senate.

It is almost certain that the centre-left coalition, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, will command an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The current electoral law gives the party coalition with the most votes 55% of all lower house seats. With a gap of around 10%–points in the polls, it would be a herculean achievement if Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition deprived the centre-left of their lower house majority. For the losers, the remaining 284 seats are distributed - using proportional representation - to those party coalitions polling more than 4% of the vote.
The race is much closer in the Senate. Senate seats are allocated on a regional basis, based on relative population sizes. Within each region, the party coalition with the most votes gets 55% of that region's seats. The remaining 45% of seats are then allocated using proportional representation to the other party coalitions polling more than 8%. The Senate contest is therefore focussed on a handful of key battleground regions.

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