A band-aid now is not enough

As long as can be remembered, Parliament has never rejected the official balance sheet on State spending. Yesterday, article 1 of the measure failed to be approved by one vote in a crushing context that was full of symbolism: the prime minister that just voted, something that he does not do often; the Finance Minister on the other hand was not in the chamber; Umberto Bossi, the official crutch of the government, did not arrive in time; other deputies who were absent are part of the group that are enemies of Tremonti and of the Lega.
For some time now the question has been when and how the shot from Sarajevo would have been fired; meaning when the event able to break the worn-out equilibrium of the legislature would take place. Now here is the question: was yesterday's loss by one vote the equivalent for Berlusconi's government of the gun fired in Sarajevo? Maybe not, if one had expected the blow to prompt Berlusconi's automatic and immediate resignation, as the opposition and some constitutional experts call for (it certainly would have taken place during the First Republic). But that signal could be just as serious: it would be the definitive and devastating proof that the ruling coalition is in pieces, without backbone and unable to stay on course.

In other words, a serious and profound issue in the Pdl-Lega coalition has been raised. And the issue is on a theme that is extremely delicate for institutions, because the balance sheet is what holds up the pillar of economic stability. It is significant that Tremonti and Bossi, but also Scajola, were near the floor of the House of Deputies, but did not vote, maybe for an oversight, bad luck or other reasons. The fracture is clear. It has a lot to do with the Berlusconi's leadership that is ever weaker and more confused, a growing unease within the coalition with the fear of an upcoming electoral defeat. More than anything it has to do with unsolved problems: from the Bank of Italy to economic policy, with the obsession on judges in the background that absorbs more than ever the energies that the prime minister has left.
There are all, absolutely all, the premises for a government crisis and a subsequent process to clear up the situation. Even if it means going through a new government to reach the end of the current legislature by dissolving parliament and holding new elections as would take place in any democracy. In this sense it is true: the vote at the Chamber of Deputies can be compared to the shot fired in Sarajevo. In any case, no one can undervalue the short term drama and the political consequences.

Saying that it is only a "problem with numbers", like some center-right representatives claim, means not understanding the political extent of the episode and closing one's eyes in front of hard-hit reality. Naturally, Berlusconi and his allies will try to make the ruling coalition more compact by restoring the plaster cast: maybe with a maxi-amendment aimed are recovering article 1 and on which to place a vote of confidence. Maybe on paper they have the votes to do this, as has already taken place in the past. But it would not be proof of newfound vigor: it would be, precisely, just "a plaster cast."
The truth is that the ruling coalition no longer has a political back bone. Thinking that it can resolve the contradiction with a "band-aid" made of numbers put together the best way possible, means, for the umpteenth time, going around the substance of problems. And it would be equivalent to being back in the quagmire after a few days, exposed to new incidents and sudden attacks. At this point, common sense would make the prime minister himself propose to the head of State a political clarification. Without ruling out the formal opening of the crisis that would allow facing the questions that still have to be resolved: political ones and substantial ones. On the other hand, parliamentary expedients can help glue together the pieces of the ruling coalition. But it would be difficult for them to cure the deep-rooted mishaps.

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