The breaking point

Luckily the small smiles and winks in Brussels between Sarkozy and Merkel, more the former than the latter, were just a misunderstanding as the two press releases of the respective governments explained yesterday. It is a good thing that certain clouds were swiftly blown away within the European Union, considering that everyone has little to laugh about.

This way Berlusconi had the poor consolation of reminding the French and Germans of the problems of their own banks. Romano Prodi did not hide the fact that he felt "irritated and then humiliated as an Italian". Casini, for his part, was the first, already Sunday evening, to say that "no one can ridicule Italy, despite Berlusconi's clear mistakes". With the incident closed, and it was anything but irrelevant, the stark reality remains. Italy, as never before in its recent history, has no credibility beyond national borders. The job of regaining the lost respect, avoiding other unfortunate misunderstandings, will be neither a brief nor easy for who will govern tomorrow.

What is certain is that for now we are in the utmost uncertainty and there is a heavy fog. The urgency of the European questions by now is more important than domestic disputes. Having the European Union place us under the guide of a commissioner has the advantage of having a superior force drive us on a virtuous path, but it requires that political forces be united and very convinced about the recipe being proposed. This is not the case in Italy. The fracture within the government on pensions between the Pdl and the Lega is paralyzing, as was demonstrated by the fact that nothing happened at the Cabinet meeting.

One can say there is still time until the new European summit tomorrow. But the problem is that a strong, convincing agreement is needed, so as to open a new prospect that is in line with the principles set out by the central bank. Otherwise we find ourselves at a crossroad: on one side there would be a clear rupture and a crisis of the Berlusconi government, therefore ending a season that lasted almost eighteen years; on the other side, there would be the usual short-sighted compromise, extracted with difficulty from a night of exhausting negotiations. A magic trick to save face in Europe and the survival of the Berlusconi-Bossi political pact in Italy.

Well then, this time this double scenario actually seems impossible. We cannot have it both ways. If the prime minister tomorrow goes to Brussels with nothing to show for, without precise commitments and ratified decisions, there will be total humiliation with catastrophic consequences. In this case there is reason to believe that also the chemistry that holds together the government in Rome will be overwhelmed. Precisely because the European logic is urgent it is perfectly capable of disrupting the domestic routine: that "theatre of politics" against which the prime minister verbally lashed out at, but then became its consenting prisoner.

Never like today are we so close to the breaking point between Berlusconi and the Lega. The fact is that no one knows exactly what there will be afterwards. On the last defensive line, the line of the ECB, there is almost just the "third pole" of Casini and Fini. Looking towards the left, we know that the Pd is divided, not from today, on the pension reform. Enrico Letta likes the European position, but it is contested by those who do not want to break ties with the Cgil (and yesterday Susanna Camusso did not leave any doubts on the union's opinion). Bersani tries to keep united the two parts, but at the sake of clarity. On the same theme Di Pietro reveals little and Vendola nothing.

Is it possible to imagine in this context a transition government, entrusted to someone that logically is not Berlusconi? Someone, possibly neutral so as to attract attention in Europe? With how things stand today, one needs a lot of creativity to imagine this, considering that such a government would require several pre-conditions: "non-belligerence" or rather Berlusconi's consent; the cohesion of the Pdl; the willpower of those in the center; the support or at least the non-hostility of the center-left; a Pd that does not fear to be overtaken by the supporters of Vendola.

Everything is possible but today the sensation is that we are at the foot of a very tall mountain that we have to climb. The dangers looming over the nation are huge and politics once again proves to be very late. This morning "Padania", Bossi's newspaper, has as its main headline "Final conflict. The Lega does not take even one step back". This is the fact in Italy, the rest are illusions, unless there is a strong political will and a leadership of which now there is no trace.

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