The main battlefield of the 2013 election will be the Senate. The Upper House of Parliament, where seats are won on the basis of regional majorities. Yesterday Pier Luigi Bersani, leader of Partito democratico (Pd), said that his centre left coalition will defeat the centre right led by Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Popolo della Libertà, «across the country» which in effect would mean winning both the Camera and the Senate.

Current surveys show that the coalition between Pd and Sel (Sinistra ecologia e libertà), the left party led by Nichi Vendola president of Puglia, is indeed in front of Berlusconi's coalition, followed by that of the current Prime Minister Mario Monti.
In the Senate nothing can be taken for granted. Parliament is made up of both the Camera and the Senate, each with its own way of allocating seats. In the Camera allocation is national whereas in the Senate it is based on regional winners. The bottom line is that obtaining more votes doesn't automatically mean having a majority in Parliament. This is why the Senate is the centre of the election campaign. If as Bersani says his coalition does win comfortably he will rule without the help of any further alliances. In effect he will have more seats than the 158 he would need to maintain a majority. He will in this way be able to form a government Pd-Sel of which he will be the Prime Minister.
However should Bersani fail to get a majority in the Senate, the presence of Mario Monti will help fill the void in the event that he gains a minimum of 8% of the votes. This of course then begs the question who can be the Prime Minister of Parliament held together by two parties? Pier Ferdinando Casini former member of Dc (Democrazia Cristiana) and one of Monti's supporters with his Udc (centre) party said that in this way Bersani can't be PM over Monti.

Monti for his part clarified that he doesn't want to be Minister of the Economy in a government led by someone else. So where does this leave us? It could be that one negotiating chip would be the position of the President of the Republic, which is up for renewal in April following the election. Monti has already been mooted by many as a possible candidate.
Where would all that leave Berlusconi? The former PM is trying to stage a comeback knowing that he will have his hands full, particularly in the Senate. For this reason he has renewed his allegiance with Lega Nord, a party based in the north of Italy, with a substantial following in areas like Lombardy. He used much the same strategy in the south of the country making agreements with local bodies in Sicily for example. To ensure that Bersani does not have a majority in the Senate it will be enough for Berlusconi to win in Lombardy and Sicily.