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Questo articolo è stato pubblicato il 26 agosto 2010 alle ore 13:34.
MUNICH – The world’s worst post-war financial crisis is over. It arrived suddenly in 2008, and, after roughly 18 months, vanished almost as quickly as it had come. Bank rescue programs on the order of Ђ5 trillion and Keynesian stimulus programs on the order of a further Ђ1 trillion staved off collapse. After falling 0.6% in 2009, world GDP is expected to grow this year by 4.6%, and by 4.3% in 2011, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts – faster than average growth over the last three decades.
The European debt crisis, however, remains, and markets do not fully trust the current calm. The risk premia that financially distressed countries must pay remain high and signal continuing risk.
Greek interest rate premiums relative to Germany on ten-year government bonds stood at 8.6% on August 20th, which is even higher than at the end of April when Greece became practically insolvent and European Union-wide rescue measures were prepared. The spreads for Ireland and Portugal have also been rising, even though by the end of July it seemed that the gigantic Ђ920 billion rescue package put together by the EU, the eurozone countries, the IMF, and the European Central Bank would calm the markets.
The world is currently divided into two groups of countries: those that are off to a strong recovery, and those that lag behind and are signaling new problems. The BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – are in the first group. Even Russia, where the upswing was difficult and hesitant, is expected to grow by 4.3% this year. China remains the champion, with a growth rate around 10%.
The second group consists of countries with debt problems, above all the United States. While the US is expected to grow by 3.3% this year and by 2.9% next year – roughly the long-term average for the past 30 years, this cannot be called a self-sustained upswing, given that the fiscal deficit is expected to reach a breathtaking 11% of GDP this year, before easing to a still-high 8.2% in 2011.
While the US no longer suffers from rising unemployment, the current 9.5% jobless rate is very high for the US, roughly double its level before the recession. The problem remains the real-estate market, whose collapse caused the crisis. The Case-Shiller index for single-family homes seemed to have recovered in spring 2009, after a 34% decline relative to the last boom. But home prices since then have been flat and show no visible trend.