The future of Mario Monti is leading the list of FAQ in Italian politics. The number of times his name has appeared in significant institutional roles is almost uncountable: President of the Republic, Finance Minister, Foreign Minister, Prime Minister of a grand coalition and even President of the Senate. But what Monti will be when he "grows up" depends on the outcome of the election.

If the center-left coalition, made up of the PD and Sel, wins the election it will govern alone. Pier Luigi Bersani will be Prime Minister and will be able to decide for himself who gets a place in his team. But as the secretary of the PD often says: «If we get 51%, it will count as if it were 49%, with alliances made among forces not heirs of berlusconismo and leghismo». An invitation to the coalition led by Monti. What's more, forecasts say it is unlikely that the center-left will win a majority in the Senate. The collaboration with the Professor is consequently all the more likely.
In a government led by Bersani, many would like to see Monti fill the role of Finance Minister (a position he previously held in the first months of his term, before it went to Vittorio Grilli). A reassuring presence for Europe and the markets: a guarantee of continuity with those reforms initiated by the Professor's staff. Monti does not rule out this hypothesis: «We will see if I fit in the program» he said thinking about a "broad alliance" that would enable him «to deal with pressing economic and social issues». For Bersani, however, it would be an awkward presence and one that would be difficult to live with. There is a more likely alternative: Monti could fill the post of Foreign Minister. A transition to a new stage of his career: at the end of 2014 he could be considered among candidates poised to succeed Herman Van Rompuy at the EU Council. For Monti, returning to Brussels after being European Commissioner, would be something of a home coming.

In the case of the center-left not getting enough votes there could be a return to the possibility of a "grand coalition". Without a clear majority, the one man able to provide Italy with a new government could be once more the Professor. His government was based on a broad alliance with PDL, PD and UDC (a small post-Christian Democrat party now allied with Monti for the elections).
The role for which Monti looked to be destined was that of President of the Republic. It was Napolitano himself who nominated Monti as senator for life and appointed him as Prime Minister to lead the country after the implosion of the Berlusconi government. For many people, therefore, the natural successor of Napolitano (his term expires in May) was Monti. The decision of the Professor to engage directly in the election campaign however changed the scenario. «I do not think I have increased my chances» he said with his usual irony. However, his candidacy is a hypothesis still on the table along with a handful of other names.
But there's still more to come. Counting the number of possible positions that Monti could fill it is also worth mentioning that of the President of the Senate (the upper house of the Italian Parliament) a position only second to that of the President of the Republic. Maybe just a step away from getting to the top of the highest hill in Italian politics.

(Traduzione di James Tierney)

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