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Questo articolo è stato pubblicato il 18 febbraio 2013 alle ore 07:34.
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A possibility nobody has considered until now is a Berlusconi's victory in the lower House. Many are taking it for granted that Bersani will win there. In fact for weeks everyone has been looking at the Senate trying to guess whether the coalition led by Bersani and Vendola could actually get an absolute majority of the seats.
We know this will depend on the results of the elections in some key regions, in particular Lombardy, Sicily and Campania. But what about if the real unknown factor were to become the lower House?
Various polls published last Friday still gave a gap of 5-6 percentage points between the two major coalitions. Normally, just a few days away from the date of the elections, such a lead would be considered a safe margin for winning in the lower House, where a simple plurality is sufficient to obtain the majority premium. But these are not normal times. The polls could be giving us an inaccurate picture of the state of public opinion. There could be a "Berlusconi effect" behind the numbers, similar to what is defined as the "Bradley effect" in the USA. Bradley was the black candidate for mayor of Los Angeles whose popularity in the polls was always overestimated because many white voters were ashamed to admit that they were not willing to vote for a black. Something similar could happen with Berlusconi today, as it did with the DC during the First Republic. And perhaps to a certain extent the same could also be true for Grillo. There are "techniques" to correct this distortion but it is not sure that they really work.
This is one reason that polls differ so much. Besides those mentioned above, there are other polls published last week which showed a gap of only 4 percentage points and one, Euromedia Research, a company very close to Berlusconi, which actually gave Bersani's coalition a lead of less than 2%. With such numbers, what seemed to be unimaginable a few weeks ago, is now no longer the case. A Berlusconi's victory in the House is not anymore impossible, though it is still unlikely. There are two ways to win the elections. One is to chase your opponent and beat him by one vote. The other is to see your opponent lose votes. Up to now, the framework for analyzing these elections was the former. With the PD-Sel coalition obtaining more than 35% of the votes in the lower House, Berlusconi did not have any chance. He could not reach that level of support and still cannot. But things have changed. Not only did the Cavaliere pick up votes during these last few weeks but the PD ,and its ally Sel, have slowly reduced their advantage. These two factors are shaking some certainties. As we have stated before, we do not believe there is much of a margin for Berlusconi to make further gains. Compared to 2006, this time he has too much competition for the extra votes he needs. Grillo particularly is doing very well at this stage of the campaign. Yet, if PD and Sel continue to fall, all the Cavaliere has to do to be back in the game in the lower House is to obtain a few more votes than he has now. If he gets over 30% of the votes this will be a game changer. And ‘startegic voting' could make an important difference in the lower House as well as in the Senate.
Since mid-December the PD has lost almost 6 percentage points and the coalition on a whole has lost almost 8 (Ipsos data). A series of factors have contributed to this trend. It was natural to expect a drop after the great mobilization of the primary elections. But it continued too long. Bersani's campaign is alright but why is he not spending more time among the people like Grillo? Where are the volunteers who stirred the competition during the primaries? The social media alone is not enough for an effective electoral campaign. Public meetings and door-to-door campaigning are also necessary. Obama has shown the way. And then of course there are the scandals and the things not addressed. First of all the Monte dei Paschi scandal which, without a doubt, damaged the image and the support for the PD. As to what has not been addressed there are many issues, but the most important one is a convincing proposal concerning the ‘costs of politics'. A reform that is on the top of Italians' wish list and does not involve any expense.
These elections will not be won by the strongest competitor, as it has happened during the Second Republic, but by the least feeble. With a low percentage of the votes , the winner will win it all. It is a battle between two weak players in a world that is rapidly changing. In the next few days before the elections things will be very hot, in spite of freezing temperatures. Moreover, the Pope's sudden resignation had added to the uncertainty.
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