Storia dell'articolo

Chiudi

Questo articolo è stato pubblicato il 10 marzo 2011 alle ore 17:38.

My24

In many other parts of the world, however, we have observed a rather curious and unwelcome development in recent decades – structural change in the wrong direction. Modern, high-productivity industries have come to employ a smaller share of the economy’s labor force, while informal and other low-productivity activities have expanded. For example, since around 1990, structural change in the typical Latin American and Sub-Saharan African country has undermined rather than boosted growth.

By contrast, most Asian countries continue to behave in typical Lewisian fashion. This difference in patterns of structural change accounts for the bulk of the difference in recent growth rates between Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, on the one hand, and Asia, on the other.

This conclusion might seem to fly in the face of the experience of countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, where many firms in the modern parts of the economy (including non-traditional agriculture) have experienced undeniable growth. What has not been sufficiently understood is that much of this growth has come through rationalization of operations and technological upgrading – and thus at the price of job creation. Overall productivity in the economy is not helped much when firms become more productive by shedding workers, who end up in informal activities characterized by substantially lower productivity.

My research with Maggie McMillan of Tufts University and the International Food Policy Research Institute shows that countries with a strong comparative advantage in natural resources are particularly prone to fall into the trap of growth-reducing structural change. For these countries, globalization is a mixed blessing. The natural-resource industries that globalization promotes have limited capacity to absorb employment out of traditional sectors. Globalization therefore entrenches dualism, rather than helping to overcome it.

Appropriate policies can help. One lesson is to avoid premature collapse of import-competing industries that employ substantial numbers of people before sufficient employment opportunities have emerged in more productive industries. Asian countries, for instance, have typically liberalized at the margin (through export subsidies or special economic zones), spurring new export industries without pulling the rug from under the rest.

Second, the exchange rate is vitally important. Competitive currencies promote and protect modern tradable industries that employ a substantial share of the labor force. We found in our research that countries with competitive currencies were much more likely to experience growth-enhancing structural change.

Finally, flexible labor-market policies seem to be important, too. Legal requirements that significantly increase the costs of hiring and firing labor discourage employment creation in new industries.

Structural change does not automatically accelerate economic development. It needs a nudge in the appropriate direction, especially when a country has a strong comparative advantage in natural resources. Globalization does not alter this underlying reality. But it does increase the costs of getting the policies wrong, just as it increases the benefits of getting them right.

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University, is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.www.project-syndicate.orgFor a podcast of this commentary in English, please use this link:

Shopping24

Dai nostri archivi