Turkey’s Democratic Dusk

Yet, while Erdoğan may appear to be at the pinnacle of power, it is his government’s Gülenist allies who have grown increasingly powerful. Members of the transnational Gülen movement – inspired by followers of Fethullah Gülen, a Pennsylvania-based Muslim theologian – are staffing Turkey’s police, judiciary, bureaucracy, and universities. The Gülenist media now set the country’s new ideological tone, producing a steady stream of disinformation in their vocal support of the country’s show trials.

These trials are, in fact, often staged to serve Gülenist ends specifically. Prominent detainees, such as the journalist Nedim Sener and police commissioner Hanefi Avci, landed in jail after exposing the wrongdoings of Gülenist police and prosecutors. Editorials in Zaman, the Gülen network’s Turkish-language daily newspaper, no longer mince words: a new Turkey is being created; those who stand in the way are getting what they deserve.

Erdoğan has benefited greatly from Gülenist support, yet he detests sharing power and remains suspicious of the movement. Early on, he successfully exploited the Gülenist-supported political trials in order to demonize the opposition. But, as the charges have increased in scope and implausibility, the trials have complicated his relationships with the military, domestic liberals, and outsiders such as foreign media and the European Union. Moreover, individuals close to him and his administration have recently become entangled in the net of judicial manipulation, which suggests that he may be losing control over the police and the special courts.

Given that the fight against the common enemy, the secularist old guard, has been decisively won, an eventual break between Erdoğan and the Gülenists is perhaps inevitable. Unfortunately, regardless of which side emerges victorious, the outcome will not be good news for Turkish democracy.

For Turkey’s friends abroad, it is time for some tough love. So far, the European Union and the United States have reacted to Turkey’s descent into authoritarianism with little more than vague statements of concern. No official has offered criticism analogous to Swedish Foreign Secretary condemnation of former Ukrainian Prime Minister show trial in that country, or US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s frank statements about Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s erosion of the rule of law. Incredibly, the EU’s progress reports on Turkey have continued to call the Ergenekon trials, which are heavily supported by the Gülenists, an opportunity to strengthen the rule of law.

It wasn’t long ago that Turkey appeared to be a bright beacon of democracy and moderation in a region accustomed to autocracy and radicalism. Now it looks more like a country heading towards authoritarianism at home and embracing adventurism abroad.

It is understandable that Europeans and Americans do not want to offend a regional power. But playing Erdoğan’s game only reinforces his sense of invincibility. It does not advance the cause of democracy in Turkey; nor does it make Turkey a more reliable ally.

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University, is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.www.project-syndicate.org

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