The regional polls published by Il Sole 24 Ore give us the chance to make a more accurate estimate of the possible results of the elections in the Senate. As we know, the majority premium is assigned in this branch of the Parliament region by region.

There are 17 regions with a premium. According to the current voting intentions, we assumed that, in 13 regions, the result would be in favor of Bersani's coalition which would therefore be assigned seats corresponding to 13 premiums. We also estimated that the same coalition would win 4 seats in Trentino Alto Adige (of which 2 allied with Svp- Partito popolare Sudtirolese), 3 in the overseas constituency and one in Molise. On the whole this would mean 108 seats.

Then we have the regions that are uncertain and at the moment there are four of them. In the chart we carried out different simulations according to the results in each of the four regions. We want to answer two questions with this type of analysis. On what condition could PD (Partito democratico) and Sel (Sinistra ecologia libertà) not obtain an absolute majority of the seats in the Senate (158)? In what circumstances could Monti's list create a majority with the PD without Sel?

Let's start by the extreme case. If Bersani's coalition were to win the premium in all four of the uncertain regions, it would have a majority of 179 seats. In 2006 Prodi obtained 158 seats. In 2008 Berlusconi gained 174 seats. Lombardia is very important in these calculations, as we have pointed out in other occasions, but it might not necessarily be decisive. After the agreement between PDL and Lega, this region is without a doubt one of the most relevant. However the loss of only Lombardia (simulation B) would still give Bersani a majority of 164 seats. Nevertheless, the loss of Lombardia together with any of the other critical regions would deprive the center-left coalition of an absolute majority within the Senate. For example, without the majority premium in Lombardia and Veneto, the seats would be 155. Losing in all four regions would mean 135 seats. Yet not even in this case would Berlusconi's coalition have the relative majority of the seats. It would only have 102 against Bersani's 135. In any case, Monti would be the crucial player: that is, even if the center-left lost in all four of these regions, it could still count on an absolute majority together with Monti's list.

Could Berlusconi possibly become a decisive figure in the Senate? In other words could Bersani's left and Monti's center possibly be unable to obtain a majority? This is simulation L. If Berlusconi were to win in the four uncertain regions as well as in Piemonte, Fruili-Venezia Giulia, Puglia and Calabria, the center-left would have 112 seats, Monti 40 and Berlusconi 126. The left and the center together would have 152 seats, six less than the majority. Ingroia's orange movement would not be enough. But this is not the point. It is hard to believe that Berlusconi could actually win in all the regions in simulation L. And this means that it is not credible that Berlusconi could play a decisive role in the Senate. Monti will probably be the one to hold this position, to be the key player: unless his consensus, which today is around 15%, falls beneath the fatal threshold of 8%. If this were to happen, our calculations would have to be completely revisited. To complete the picture, it must be added that we cannot completely exclude the possibility that the PD-Sel coalition could win in all 17 regions, therefore making the support of Monti's list no longer strictly indispensable. Sicily is perhaps the most undecided but even without the Sicilian premium, Bersani could govern, numerically speaking, without extending the majority. The same would be true, as already mentioned, for Lombardia.

The possibility of a PD-Monti government instead of a PD-Sel government remains, if a Sel-PD-Monti government would not work out. Let's leave the political evaluations of such a solution aside and let's only look at the numbers. According to our estimates, Sel should be able to count on about 20 senators. If the consensus remains at this level, Monti would have about 41. As we can see in the chart, there are numerous cases in which, if we take the 20 seats of Sel from the center-left coalition and add Monti's 41, the final result, in any case, would be more than 158. Only if the PD-Sel coalition were to lose in all four undecided regions would the seats obtained by Monti's list not be sufficient to compensate those of Sel. And all three - PD, Sel and Monti – would have to necessarily stay together. But this is a remote possibility.

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