Elections are two weeks away and the last Sole 24 Ore-Ipsos poll confirmed some trends and pointed out a few novelties. The gap between the two major coalitions continues to close. This is the most significant finding which confirms a tendency that has been going on for a few weeks. Pd and Sel are just below the critical threshold of 35% of the votes in the Camera, while Pdl and its allies are at 28.3%.

The gap is now 6.6 percentage points. According to Ipsos, two weeks ago it was 10.8 points. Berlusconi has recovered 4.2. But he still has more than six points to make up in a limited time. Can it be done?
In order to find an answer it is useful to make a comparison with the 2006 election campaign. Back then, two weeks away from the elections, the distance between Prodi's Unione and Berlusconi's Casa delle Libertà was about 3 percentage points, while today it is more than six. In 2006 today's gap was more or less what existed at four months from the elections. It was then reduced to a meagre 0.1%. Therefore in that election campaign, Berlusconi managed to recover six points in four months. In this campaign, the Cavaliere has already regained the same six points. In fact at the end of October 2012 the Ipsos polls showed a gap of 12 points between center-left and center-right.

documenti

• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Trend non voto
• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Profilo degli indecisi e del non voto
• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Stime di voto

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grafici

Intenzioni di voto

Berlusconi has indeed gone a long way since he stepped back on the scene. There is no doubt that many disappointed voters who had abandoned him have now returned. A few regained confidence in the leader , others for a lack of anything better. The progressive drop in the percentage of uncertain voters during the same period proves the point.
Nevertheless, we feel that it is not realistic to assume that among those who are still uncertain about their voting intentions, there are still so many potential Berlusconi voters as to allow the Cavaliere to obtain one vote more than Bersani in the Camera and win the majority bonus. Between now and the date of the election on February 24, Berlusconi would have to practically regain as many votes as he already has in the last few months. But he has less time to do it and above all, a shirinking market of available voters. In fact about 70% of those interviewed in this poll have replied to the question concerning their vote. Even if the turnout at the polls were to be the same figure as the elections of 2008, that is 80%, (something inconceivable), this would mean that today there are less than five million voters on the market and that the Cavaliere should win over more than 50% of them. This is not impossible but frankly it is quite difficult. Even more difficult if the turnout at the polls should be around 75%,

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