documenti

• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Trend non voto
• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Profilo degli indecisi e del non voto
• Sondaggio Ipsos PA per Il Sole 24Ore - Stime di voto

Vedi tutti »

grafici

Intenzioni di voto

In any case, whoever wins, one thing is certain. The electoral system will considerably condition the results of the elections. Of course this has happened in all the elections during the Seconda Repubblica, but this time it will be different. In fact, if the polls are telling us the truth, and if there are no "February surprises", it is possible that the winner might have less than 35% of the votes. This has never happened before, neither with the electoral system in effect between 1994 and 2005, or with the current system. In 2008 Berlusconi obtained 54% of the seats in the Chamber with 47% of the votes. Today, with less than 35% of the votes the winner will be able to form the governmente and elect the Presidente della Repubblica. Blair won his third term with 35% of the votes. But Italy is not Great Britain. And it is not France either, where Hollande's socialist party won the presidency and the Parliamentary majority with 29% of the votes, thanks to the second ballot.

The real unknown factor is the Senate. Here anything is still possible. Even a clear victory for the center-left. Of course if the Cavaliere continues to regain points, the chances that Bersani might not win the majority bonus in those regions hanging in the balance, would increase. The latest polls tell us that Lombardy and Sicily are too close to call. Instead it would seem that in Veneto the center-right is consistently ahead. But only losing Veneto would not be enough to deprive Bersani of an absolute majority in the Senate. However, this would happen if Pd and Sel were to also lose in one of the two regions mentioned above. Then an alliance with Monti would no longer be a choice but a necessity.
As for Monti, he remains at about 15% in the Camera as well as in the Senate. According to the Ipsos polls, there has been very little variation in the last month. This is not the percentage that many supporters of Monti's list were expecting, but it is still a good performance. It is especially a result that will allow the outgoing Prime Minister to play a decisive role in the Senate. If the Monti list remains above 8%, Berlusconi will be confined to a marginal position. As things stand now, Monti ‘s share of the vote might not increase much but it won't shrink dramatically either.

This poll tells us something new about the performance of the other parties, Grillo and Ingroia. The former is increasing. After a hazy period, the latest events and in particular the Monte dei Paschi case, have helped the Movimento 5 Stelle to recover votes that it had lost previously. Indeed today it could very well hope to become the third Italian political force with a percentage of votes close to 16%. Instead in the case of Rivoluzione Civile, the trend seems to be the opposite. 3.7% of the votes would be a little more than what the Sinistra Arcobaleno won in 2008. Ingroia's movement might damage the Pd without being able to gain any seats in Parliament. It's the same old story.

©RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA