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Questo articolo è stato pubblicato il 29 novembre 2012 alle ore 16:22.

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Indeed, with an increasingly lenient political regime, populism may become irresistible, while the size of the government bureaucracy may continue to bloat. Given a lower growth rate, China’s fiscal position will deteriorate – gradually at first, and then rapidly – with the public debt/GDP ratio eventually rising to an unsustainable level. Making matters worse, when China needs to use its savings – accumulated over two generations and packed into US Treasury bills – to alleviate fiscal constraints, it will find that the value of its foreign-exchange reserves has already evaporated.

To judge China’s economic dynamism, the key indicator is its fiscal position. When, and only when, China’s fiscal position is worsening rapidly will its economy suffer a hard landing.

The next five years hold the key for China’s future; its window of opportunity to complete a difficult process of reform and adjustment may not be longer than that.

Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has also been a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China and served on the National Advisory Committee of China’s 11th Five-Year Plan.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2012.

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