Starved for Science

Of course, future food production is subject to significant uncertainty. Population growth may not slow down as rapidly as expected. Protectionism threatens open markets and GDP growth. And price volatility, whether triggered by drought or short-sighted national policies, could deter investments in agriculture and decrease the poor’s purchasing power.

Whether climate change will be a source of yield uncertainty in the coming decades remains unclear as well. Although precipitation may be affected, higher temperatures would enable agricultural production in colder regions, and CO2 is known to bolster plant growth, even in dry areas.

In addition, while food hygiene, traceability, and labeling are improving, any amount of negligence when it comes to food safety could have far-reaching consequences in the complex and interconnected global food chain. Rising demand for animal products highlights microbiological risks, with animal-welfare measures sometimes creating new hazards. For example, open pens for poultry may increase the spread of communicable diseases like avian influenza.

Despite such risks, the outlook for future food security is promising. Our food is safer and our diets are more diverse than ever before; production methods are becoming increasingly sustainable, clean, and efficient; and we are constantly becoming better at protecting biodiversity.

Yet many in Europe and the United States – which have benefited most from agricultural advances – are mistrustful of this progress, viewing scientific advancement and free trade as a dangerous combination. To the extent that this perception impedes progress, it is the real threat to global food security.

, University Professor at the University of Amsterdam, was Director of Research and Assistant Director General for Agriculture at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2013.

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